Estimated reading time: 3 minutes
Key Takeaways
- Lululemon’s stock has declined approximately 22% over the past year, trading around $198.46 as of August 2025.
- Analyst target reductions and cautious guidance for 2025 sales growth have contributed to market volatility and bearish sentiment.
- Despite short-term challenges, notable investor Michael Burry has increased his position, indicating long-term confidence.
- Forecasts suggest modest potential gains of 7-20% by late 2025, but risks from competition and market conditions remain.
- Investors should focus on brand strength, competitive landscape, and market signals to navigate potential opportunities and risks.
Table of Contents
Analyst Downgrades and Sales Outlook
Investor Activity and Market Sentiment
What Should Investors Consider?
The Current Market Picture
As of mid-August 2025, Lululemon shares trade around $198.46, down roughly 22% over the past year and facing volatility with a bearish market sentiment and a Fear & Greed Index at 39 indicating fear among investors [2] [3]. Despite a recent 1.68% gain in the last 24 hours and a weekly rise of nearly 4%, the stock is down about 11.5% over the last month and remains below its all-time high of $516.39 reached in December 2023 [4] [0] [5].
Analyst Downgrades and Sales Outlook
Several analysts, including Baird, have recently reduced their price targets on Lululemon citing softening US sales and rising competitive threats in the athleisure and lifestyle apparel space [1]. The company’s 4th quarter results exceeded prior forecasts but the guidance for 2025 sales growth between 5%-7% and earnings per share forecast of $14.95-$15.15 came in below expectations, prompting cautious near-term outlook revisions [2]. Morningstar maintains a fair value estimate near $315, highlighting Lululemon’s strong brand and moat, but notes the possibility of further valuation pressure if current trends persist [2].
Investor Activity and Market Sentiment
Despite the challenges, notable investor Michael Burry, known for his contrarian bets, recently increased his position in Lululemon via his Scion Asset Management fund, which has helped buoy the stock and drawn fresh investor interest [2]. This move signals confidence in Lululemon’s long-term brand strength despite short-term headwinds.
Price Forecast and Risks
Looking ahead, price forecasts show a mixed picture: some predictions expect modest gains to around $212-$220 by late 2025, representing potential returns of 7-20% depending on timing and market conditions [0] [2] [3]. However, risks from heightened competition, product management challenges, and broader market volatility keep sentiment cautious.
What Should Investors Consider?
- Brand strength and moat: Lululemon’s reputation in premium athleisure remains a core asset that supports its valuation, even in rough patches.
- Competitive landscape: Rising competition demands careful watching of product strategy and market share.
- Volatility and timing: Recent price volatility alongside mixed analyst outlooks suggest a cautious but watchful investment approach.
- Influence of institutional investors: Moves by investors like Michael Burry highlight the stock’s appeal to contrarian long-term holders.
FAQ
What is the current stock price of Lululemon in 2025?
As of August 2025, Lululemon trades around $198.46, reflecting a 22% decrease over the past year within a volatile market environment.
What are the main risks facing Lululemon in 2025?
Risks include rising competition, product management challenges, and broader market volatility, which could impact stock performance and valuation.
What are the analyst target ranges for Lululemon in 2025?
Analyst targets range from $155 to $500, with a fair value estimate near $315 according to Morningstar.