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Key Takeaways
- Winter 2025-2026 is expected to feature contrasting conditions with warmer eastern regions and colder, snowy pockets in the Pacific Northwest[0]
- The NOAA forecast predicts above-normal temperatures across most of the U.S., especially the East Coast, southern states, and Southwest[1]
- Colder, snowier conditions are likely in the Pacific Northwest due to a potential La Niña pattern[2]
- Expect variability in the central Rockies; the forecast for these areas remains less certain[3]
- The ENSO cycle’s neutral or La Niña phase will significantly influence snow and temperature patterns[4]
Table of Contents
The ENSO Factor: Neutral to La Niña
Overview of Winter 2025-2026
Winter 2025-2026 is shaping up to be a season of contrasts, with NOAA’s latest forecast indicating a mix of warmer and colder conditions across the United States. Skiers, outdoor enthusiasts, and weather followers should note this pattern reflects a balance between milder eastern temperatures and potentially snowy, colder pockets in the Pacific Northwest[0].
NOAA’s Official Forecast
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Seasonal Temperature Outlook released in late July 2025, much of the U.S. is expected to experience above-normal temperatures during winter[1]. This is especially true for the East Coast, southern states, and the Southwest where chances of warmer conditions range between 33-50%. Ski resorts in Vermont, West Virginia, and parts of California and Arizona might see challenges such as less reliable early-season snowpack and increased rain at lower elevations.
Conversely, the Pacific Northwest, including western Washington and northwest Oregon, has a 33-40% chance of below-normal temperatures. Ski destinations like Mount Baker and Crystal Mountain could see excellent powder due to colder weather and deeper snowfall[2].
Elsewhere, states in the central Rockies, such as Colorado and Montana, show an equal chance of warmer or colder than normal temperatures, making forecasts less certain for these mountain areas[2].
The ENSO Factor: Neutral to La Niña
A key driver of North American weather patterns is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle[3]. As of summer 2025, ENSO conditions are mostly neutral, but there’s a growing likelihood—up to 35%—that La Niña will develop as we move into fall and winter[4].
Neutral ENSO tends to favor cooler and snowier conditions in the eastern U.S., which is welcomed by those hoping for a classic snowy winter. La Niña usually results in colder temperatures and more snow in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies, aligning with NOAA’s cooler forecast for these regions[3].
El Niño remains unlikely with only about a 10-17% chance, and normally correlates with milder winters in the east, which is not the favored scenario for this season[4].
Impact on Different Regions
East Coast and Southwest: Prepare for warmer periods that could shorten snowfall windows. Resorts with effective snowmaking will be essential for maintaining ski seasons[0].
Pacific Northwest: Likely to experience deep snow and excellent conditions due to colder weather[2].
Central Rockies: Expect variability; staying updated on forecasts will be important[3].
Why This Forecast Matters
NOAA’s forecast provides an early comprehensive view of the upcoming winter landscape. Last year’s season was predicted with a grade B+ by meteorologists; this year’s forecast indicates greater variability and surprises due to the transitional ENSO status[2]. Understanding these patterns helps individuals, resorts, and local economies prepare for the season—whether it’s managing snowmaking, planning trips, or assessing weather impacts.
Stay Updated
With a dynamic ENSO cycle and shifting weather patterns, NOAA and other meteorological experts recommend monitoring monthly updates closer to winter[3]. The near-neutral ENSO phase offers hope for snow lovers, particularly in the east.
Final Takeaway
Winter 2025-2026 may deliver a season of contrasts: warmer in many eastern and southwestern locations but potentially cold and snowy in the Pacific Northwest, with overall uncertainty in the central states. Skiers and weather watchers should closely watch ENSO developments and remain flexible as the season approaches.
FAQ
What are the main factors influencing this winter’s forecast?
The forecast is primarily influenced by NOAA’s predictions of temperature patterns and the ENSO cycle, which includes neutral conditions, La Niña development, and the unlikely El Niño scenario, all of which impact regional snowfall and temperature trends[3].
How will regional differences affect ski conditions?
Warmer eastern regions may see shorter snow seasons, emphasizing the importance of snowmaking systems. Meanwhile, colder areas like the Pacific Northwest are expected to have excellent powder and more reliable snow cover[2].
Why is monitoring ENSO important for winter planning?
ENSO significantly influences regional weather patterns, determining the likelihood of colder, snowier conditions versus milder winters. Tracking ENSO helps resorts and individuals plan more effectively for snow conditions[4].